>Thursday Lunch: Fantasy Football – Week 5

Posted: October 7, 2010 in Uncategorized
Tags: , ,

>By Nick Gallaudet
 
The fantasy world was shaken Wednesday with the blockbuster trade of WR Randy Moss to the Vikings. What does this mean for your fantasy team? Well initially, one would think that QB Tom Brady’s value decreases, but I expect WR Brandon Tate to step into the burner role vacated by Moss, and while Moss is a huge weapon to lose, I think Brady will continue to put up consistently good numbers. Also, WR Brandon Tate is now a must-add off the waiver wire. QB Brett Favre will finally have a weapon at the WR position, but I’m still not sold on his value yet. He’s looked awful this year (if you have Favre, I would try to trade him, because I personally don’t think his value will get any higher than it is right now). Also, it’s hard for Moss’ production to go down from his zero catches last week, but I think he will be utilized a lot. Favre will force it to him, and while it may not be the best thing for the Vikings, it will be good for Moss’ numbers.

BYES: Miami, New England, Pittsburgh, Seattle
 
BYE WEEK REPLACEMENTS
QB Shaun Hill DET, David Garrard JAC, Sam Bradford STL
RB Ryan Torain WAS, Ladell Betts NO, Beanie Wells ARI
WR Mario Manningham NYG, Steve Johnson BUF, Mark Clayton STL
 
WAIVER WATCH
RB Ryan Torain WAS: He will get the start this week and is a great option as a bye week replacement.
WR Brandon Tate NE: See opening paragraph.
WR Mike Thomas JAC: Garrard remembered how to play quarterback last week and he should have another confidence boosting game this week against the Bills, and Thomas should benefit.
 
JACKSONVILLE at BUFFALO
Jacksonville: QB David Garrard had a clutch game against the Colts last week and showed that he was still capable of quarterbacking an NFL team. His success through the air opened up the field for RB Maurice Jones-Drew, who also had a great day. I expect Jones-Drew to keep the production up against the worst rushing defense in the NFL this week in the Bills. Garrard could have a decent game, too, but I don’t think there is enough there to warrant a start. WR Mike Thomas could work out as a bye week replacement, though.
Start: RB Jones-Drew
Sit: QB Garrard
 
Buffalo: The Bills dealt RB Marshawn Lynch to the Seahawks this week, opening up carries for RBs Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, but who will get the carries? It’s hard to tell. Both RBs have been limited this year in terms of run production, and I don’t expect the Bills to hand it to one guy. They aren’t dynamic enough to rack up enough yards with limited opportunities, so I don’t feel confident starting either of these guys just yet. As far as passing, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t been the spark they were looking for, but he has been getting the ball to WR Steve Johnson occasionally, and against Jacksonville’s poor pass D, I think Johnson is worth using as a bye week replacement.
Start: WR Johnson
Sit: QB Fitzpatrick, RB Jackson, RB Spiller
 
TAMPA BAY at CINCINNATI
Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay’s running game is in complete disarray, and the carries are being split in such a way that right now that there is little value here. RB LeGarrette Blount looks to get goal line carries and is really the only Bucs’ running back I would even consider starting at this point. QB Josh Freeman has emerged, and his best scoring threat is WR Mike Williams. Cincinnati sports a decent pass defense however, so I wouldn’t expect too much out of Freeman.
Start: WR Williams
Sit: RB Blount, WR Cadillac Williams
 
Cincinnati: WR Terrell Owens showed last week that he wasn’t done in the NFL. With 222 yards receiving, T.O. reminded everyone that he wasn’t dead yet, as did QB Carson Palmer. Granted, it did come against the Browns. T.O. did enough last week, though, to warrant another start this week, but I’m still a little weary of Palmer. Palmer has looked pretty bad this year and Tampa Bay’s decent pass defense could be too much for Palmer. RB Cedric Benson has been underwhelming at best this year, and I don’t think he’s much of a threat this week against a mediocre Bucs defense.
Start: WR Owens
Sit: RB Benson
 
ATLANTA at CLEVELAND
Atlanta: Cleveland was torched by Cincinnati last week, and after weathering a solid 49er defense last week, the Falcons eventually broke through and began moving the ball. All of this together says “big week for WR Roddy White.” I think QB Matt Ryan will exploit the Cleveland secondary that decided not to cover T.O. last week, and RB Michael Turner will be used to pound the ball down the Browns throat in what should be a points extravaganza for the Falcons this week.
Start: RB Turner, WR White
Sit: RB Snelling
 
Cleveland: RB Peyton Hillis has been Cleveland’s only offense this year, and that trend will continue this week. If there are any points to be scored by the Browns in this game, they are coming from Hillis, even with RB Jerome Harrison coming back. I don’t think the numbers will be huge, but if you’re looking for a #3 RB or a flex player, I would start Hillis.
Start: RB Hillis (with reservations)
Sit: RB Harrison
 
ST. LOUIS at DETROIT
St. Louis: QB Sam Bradford is really coming into his own as the year progresses. He had another good game against Seattle last week and should have one again this week against a garbage Detroit defense. WR Mark Clayton will be the main beneficiary through the air and RB Steven Jackson should have a good game on the ground.
Start: QB Bradford, RB Jackson, WR Clayton
Sit: RB Kenneth Darby
 
Detroit: QB Shaun Hill looks to get the start again this week and should continue to put up serviceable numbers. WR Calvin Johnson broke out last week with 2 TD catches as he and Hill begin to build familiarity. Playing from behind most of last week, RB Jahvid Best wasn’t able to really get going, but he should have that opportunity this week against a subpar Rams defense.
Start: RB Best, WR Johnson
Sit: All WRs not named Calvin
 
KANSAS CITY at INDIANAPOLIS
Kansas City: I can all but guarantee QB Matt Cassel will be obliterated this week. He may not even throw for 100 yards. The embarrassed Indy pass defense is back on turf and will be coming after Cassel. To have a chance in this game, the Chiefs are going to have to rely on RBs Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, and as we all know, Indy can’t stop the run, so I expect one of the two to break a big run, and Charles will probably be that guy. I would be comfortable starting both of them, but I like Charles more than Jones.
Start: RB Charles, RB Jones
Sit: QB Cassel, WR Dwayne Bowe
 
Indianapolis: QB Peyton Manning is a machine; WR Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark are must-starts. Not much to discuss here. WR Austin Collie is nursing a sore hamstring, so monitor the situation, because if Collie is healthy, he should be started. RB Joseph Addai will likely get the bulk of the touches this week and should be started, almost solely because of his pass catching ability.
Start: QB Manning, WR Wayne, TE Clark
Sit: RB Donald Brown
 
GREEN BAY at WASHINGTON
Green Bay: Washington is at the bottom of the league in passing defense and that’s all you really need to know for this matchup. QB Aaron Rodgers should have another good game. Look for TE Jermichael Finley to continue to be a big part of the passing game and for WRs Donald Driver and Greg Jennings to have good games, as well. The Green Bay running game hasn’t really blossomed the way a lot of people hoped it would, even after Grant’s injury, so I would wait sit RBs Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn until Green Bay is able to incorporate the run a little better with their new personnel.
Start: QB Rodgers, TE Finley
Sit: RB Jackson, RB Kuhn
 
Washington: What was lost in the Redskins’ big win against the Eagles last week was that QB Donovan McNabb was not good. The Redskins were not able to move the ball, and I think the Redskins will try to run the ball on the mediocre Packer run defense. Waiver star RB Ryan Torain will get the start and is the only Redskin I recommend starting other than TE Chris Cooley.
Start: RB Torain
Sit: QB McNabb, WR Santana Moss
 
CHICAGO at CAROLINA
Chicago: QB Jay Cutler relapsed last week. He was doing so well this season, but last week just could not get rid of the ball, resulting in nine sacks in the 1st half before leaving with a concussion. Cutler should start this week, and if he does, he should be started against Carolina’s poor defense, as should WR Johnny Knox and RB Matt Forte. If Cutler doesn’t play, however, I’d stay away from the Bears offense.
Start: QB Cutler, Defense
Sit: Everyone if Cutler is out
Carolina: RBs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams both reached the end zone last week, but this week should be a little different. The Carolina running game has not been very effective this season, and now they are going against one of the best rushing defenses in the league without a passing game to complement them. I don’t think Chicago is afraid of QB Jimmy Clausen and I don’t expect any production from the Panthers this week.
Start: K John Kasay
Sit: QB Clausen, RB Williams, RB Stewart, WR Steve Smith
 
DENVER at BALTIMORE
Denver: QB Kyle Orton leads the league in passing yards, and Baltimore leads the league in passing defense. If this game was in Denver, I would hold out a little hope for Orton and the passing game, but this is an early game on the East coast. I cannot justify starting any Bronco this week against that defense.
Start: None
Sit: Everyone
 
Baltimore: QB Joe Flacco actually put up some decent numbers against Pittsburgh last week. Flacco could definitely put up some points this week, but I’m still not 100% sold on him yet after his miserable start. I do think WR Anquan Boldin will bounce back this week and have a good game. RB Ray Rice was a little banged up last week, and has had an overall poor season thus far. I personally think RB Willis McGahee is a better option this week against an average defense.
Start: WR Boldin
Sit: RB Rice
 
NY GIANTS at HOUSTON
NY Giants: QB Eli Manning had modest showing last week to say the least. He should fare better this week against one of the worst passing defenses in the league. I think WR Hakeem Nicks will continue to burn defenses, while WRs Steve Smith and Mario Manningham will both have decent games. RBs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw torched the supposedly stellar Bears defense last week and will look to duplicate that feat this week against a good Houston run defense. I don’t think the numbers will be there this week, but I would be comfortable starting Bradshaw.
Start: QB Manning, WR Nicks
Sit: RB Jacobs
 
Houston: WR Andre Johnson missed last week, but he should be back this week, and QB Matt Schaub is going to need him. Schaub did not look good last week without his go-to-guy, and Houston relied heavily on the run again. RB Arian Foster still had a monster game despite being benched early, as did RB Derrick Ward. Foster maintains his must-start status, and I still have trouble sitting Schaub, especially with Johnson coming back, but pay attention to his status. It could change.
Start: RB Foster
Sit: WR Kevin Walter, RB Ward
 
NEW ORLEANS at ARIZONA
New Orleans: The Saints are coming off a disappointing performance against the Panthers last week, but they could not pick a better team to face. Arizona cannot stop anybody, especially with their current QB controversy. QB Drew Brees will light this defense up. As always with the Saints, it’s a crapshoot as to who will be on the receiving end of Brees’ passes, but WR Lance Moore would be a good bet as he’s been heavily involved the last couple weeks. RB Pierre Thomas is still banged up and may not play, and if he doesn’t, RB Ladell Betts is a good option. RB Chris Ivory could come into play, but it looked like Betts was the guy last week.
Start: QB Brees, RB Betts, Defense
Sit: RB Thomas
 
Arizona: This offense is a mess. QB Max Hall will make his first NFL start this week, and that’s not a good thing for Arizona’s offense. They will try to force the ball to WR Larry Fitzgerald, but that doesn’t mean there will be points there. RBs Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells combined for 12 carries last week, and it could be more of the same this week since they will likely be playing from behind. I’d stay away from any Cardinals this week.
Start: None
Sit: Everybody
 
SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND
San Diego: QB Phillip Rivers is knocking on the door of the elite QBs, but don’t get too excited. Oakland has a very good pass defense, and I don’t think anyone outside of TE Antonio Gates will have a day worthy of a starting spot. The points will be generated on the ground by RBs Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert. Tolbert has played himself into a major part of the SD offense, and even with Mathews back, I think both backs could contribute against this poor Oakland rush defense.
Start: RB Tolbert, RB Mathews, TE Gates
Sit: WR Malcolm Floyd
 
Oakland: QB Bruce Gradkowski did not live up to expectations last week. He showed the world that no matter how well he played previously, he was JaMarcus Russell’s backup for a reason. That doesn’t change the fact that he is capable of putting up points though. WRs Darrius Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy are recovering from injuries that hampered their production last week, so hopefully they’ll be up to the challenge this week against a decent San Diego defense. Both are capable of making big plays, but I don’t think there are many to be had against the SD defense. Now to their running backs. RB Darren McFadden has a sore hamstring that may factor in his playing time this week, and that opens the door for RB Michael Bush. McFadden says he will play, but I don’t think he’ll have a very large role and if he does, I don’t think he’ll be very effective, so look for Bush to have a decent game.
Start: RB Bush
Sit: RB McFadden, WR Heyward-Bey
 
TENNESSEE at DALLAS
Tennessee: Could RB Chris Johnson be breaking down? He hasn’t looked quite the same this year, but he is still a must-start RB. QB Vince Young still hasn’t emerged as a fantasy QB, but WR Kenny Britt is beginning to become a larger factor in the Titan offense, and may be worth starting this week, but don’t look for too much.
Start: RB Johnson
Sit: QB Young
 
Dallas: Coming off a bye, I expect the Cowboys to be ready to score. Tennessee has a pretty good run defense, and Dallas hasn’t really worked the run in very well, but QB Tony Romo seems to have settled in. WR Roy Williams was huge 2 weeks ago, and WR Miles Austin is an elite WR worth starting.
Start: QB Romo, WR Austin
Sit: RB Jones, RB Barber
 
PHILADELPHIA at SAN FRANCISCO
Philadelphia: San Francisco seems to have figured it out on defense with an impressive game against a good Falcons offense last week. Philly is also reeling from Michael Vick’s rib injury. Vick looks to miss at least this week, if not more. QB Kevin Kolb looked scared to go down the field last week, which is not good because that is where WR DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are dangerous. With Kolb in, I expect Jackson’s numbers to go way down and Maclin’s to go down a little, but neither will produce much with a scared quarterback. RB LeSean McCoy and TE Brent Celek will be Kolb’s favorite targets, and that alone is enough to warrant starts for both of them.
Start: RB McCoy, TE Celek
Sit: WR Jackson
 
San Francisco: QB Alex Smith has replaced JaMarcus Russell as my favorite QB to watch because he really is just that bad. He makes everyone in the passing game useless and RB Frank Gore SF’s only option. That means Gore will get a lot of touches and be the only real offensive threat for the 49ers.
Start: RB Gore
Sit: QB Smith, WR Michael Crabtree
 
MINNESOTA at NY JETS
Minnesota: The Jets have been pretty good against the run this year, and a little shaky against the pass, but Revis is coming back, QB Brett Favre still isn’t comfortable enough with his other targets to give me much confidence in him. WR Randy Moss’ return to the Vikes won’t be exactly what he wanted it to be, but he may catch a TD. I think the Vikings will be more likely to ride RB Adrian Peterson. He may not put up a ton of yards, but they will use him enough to make him worth starting.
Start: RB Peterson
Sit: QB Favre, WR Percy Harvin
 
NY Jets: Minnesota does sport a solid defense, and it could pose a problem for the Jets offense. QB Mark Sanchez and RB LaDainian Tomlinson have been hating on all the doubters and tearing it up lately, but I think they will both be in for a rude awakening this week. This will be an ugly game, but I do think that WR Santonio Holmes’ return will allow WR Braylon Edwards and TE Dustin Keller to continue solid production.
Start: WR Edwards, TE Keller
Sit: RB Tomlinson
 
Lineup of the Week antoniogates
QB Peyton Manning IND
RB Maurice Jones-Drew JAC
RB Ryan Torain WAS
WR Reggie Wayne IND
WR Roddy White ATL
WR Hakeem Nicks NYG
TE Antonio Gates SD
K Josh Scobee JAC
DEF New Orleans

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